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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.